Monday, March 30, 2009

Top Ten stats the Sox need to improve in 2009

A week ago Eli came up with a fine list explaining 10 stats the Cubs need to improve on. And if there are ten things that the Northsiders need to work on, there must be at least 25 stats the Sox need to improve. So I spent a few hours scanning good ole' Baseball-Reference for some interesting numbers. Below are ten of the most glaring.

10. Alexei's slow start, finish



While his April's .121 batting average can be chalked up to having never played in cold conditions and overall inexperience, there is really no excuse for his .211 average in September, a month they really needed him. An interesting number however was his eight base on balls in the final month of the year; nearly half of his season's walk. While it isn't necessary to have a huge April, it would be nice if Alexei could at least double last season's first month to get himself and the team on the right foot.

9. Jim Thome's batting average



I don't mind when the power hitters strike out a whole lot, because after all, they are power hitters. They go big or go home. While it is not imperative, improving on last season's .245 average could go a long way for the team. Even if it was just ten points. While there are so many other ways he makes up for it (.362 OBP, 34 homers, 90 RBI, 93 runs), his hitting could play a large role in the success of the team.

8. Team errors



Though a little less than 1/5 of those errors were because of Joe Crede, who is now in Minnesota, last year's 108 errors ranked 3rd highest in the AL. If not for Texas' 132 errors, the team would probably need to start going to some of their own Sox Academy sessions over the summer. Joey Cora has been working with the infielders this season to shore up some of the problems.

7. Paul Konerko's offensive numbers



Last season was simply horrendous for Paulie, who is maybe the most beloved Sox player of this decade. For the majority of the year, he looked like a power hitter who lost his ability to drive the ball (kind of a problem, no?). If not for returning from injury and having a vastly improved August and September, his .240 average with 22 homers and 62 RBI would have all been significantly lower. Not to mention he probably would have been written off all together by the fans. Let's hope this preseason power continues.

6. Gavin Floyd's homers allowed



While it isn't as bad as Ted Lilly's 32 homers allowed last year, Floyd's 30 is nothing to be proud of. The team cannot afford the former fourth overall pick to relapse. While he still won 17 games including two near no-hitters, if he can cut that number down to even 20, we would see drastic improvements in his stats.

5. Team batting average



I realize team batting average can be overrated, especially when Tampa finished last season with the second lowest average in the AL. But they found other ways to manufacture runs. The Sox finished with a .263 average, good for 11th in AL, only three points higher than the Rays. There need to be more people on base for their plethora of bashers to drive in.

4. Scott Linebrink's second half ERA



For the first half of last year, Scott Linebrink was everything and more of what they asked for when they paid him big bucks to be a middle reliever. His 2.37 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in the first half last year was phenomenal. But his numbers after the break were an entire acronym of the first half, almost entirely because of injury (9.72 in only eight innings). The Sox need him healthy as well as unstoppable in order to compete.

3. Baserunning



The Sox need to know their role when it comes to stealing bases. People like to say that they're not a base stealing team because of the power. But that isn't necessarily true. They were towards the bottom in attempts, yes. But they were also second-to-last with 67 safely-stolen bags. And were right at the AL average of bases stolen (League average was 35, they were caught 34 times). All these numbers total an AL-worst 66% safe attempts. This tells me one of two things. They should either totally stop running, or bring in somebody who can fill Ozzie's knack for trying to move his guys (preferably not named Jerry Owens) from base to base.

2. Blown leads



In all the time I spent looking for stats, this was the most interesting number I found. Last year the southsiders were 64-14 when leading before the 6th, 68-9 when leading before the 7th, 72-7 when leading before the 8th and 78-2 when leading before the 9th. That is a lot of information to digest, but it says that if they can get to the 7th inning with a lead, chances are pretty good they'll win. The problem comes most often in the 6th, which isn't that hard to believe (typically a starter is tailing off and the strong relievers aren't going to come in until later innings). But if they can eliminate that mid-game slump in the 6th, chances are good.

1. Leadoff hitters on-base percentage



Orlando Cabrera led off 128 games last season, and while a .281 average is not horrendous, for a leadoff hitter it's subpar. Then to throw in that his OBP was a mere .334, it is easy to see where some of their run-production problems occurred. To add to this stat however, the only other player on the team to start in the 1-slot more than three times last season was Nick Swisher. I think we all know how that turned out.

5 comments:

Margie said...

I agree with you about Konerko. He needs to come back from his 2nd worst season in the majors. If he doesn’t, he'll end up as a "has been" by 2010.

Unknown said...

A "has been" the Sox will have to pay $12 million. He better earn his money.

Gp said...

In spring practice it seems like the pitchers are holding the runners which gives Pierzynski a better chance of stopping the base stealing. This would be a needed improvement over last year.

Unknown said...

Ah, good call GP. AJ has such a bad arm however I think MLB could institute that little league rule where the runner can't go until the ball crosses the plate and it still wouldn't help him out.

Vincetastic said...

This is a really great top ten list, and I totally agree with number 1. This is one of the basis of the whole Billie Bean Oakland A's mantra of on-base percentage being important, along with longer at bats, and not getting out. Anyone can post their own to our site http://www.toptentopten.com/. The coolest feature is you can let other people vote on the rankings of your list.