Top Ten Cubs off-season steps/moves

BY DUBS

The 2008 Cubs were probably the best team in the NL. Unfortunately, that did not translate in the postseason for the second straight year. The good news for the Cubs is that they do not need to do all that much to be a 90+-win team in 2009. However, there are some major issues that need to be addressed, as some of their top pitchers have become free agents. Also, the free agent market is full of players who can make an instant impact.

Unfortunately, the Cubs are already committed to something like 130MM after arbitration (2007 payroll ended up a little under 130MM by seasons end). This means they will probably have to dump a salary or two via trade to be able to sign their very valuable pitching free agents and a lefty bat. The Cubs have talked about increasing their payroll, but by how much (140MM or maybe 150MM)? Here are some steps the Cubs could possibly make and their potential roster for next year*.

10. Re-sign Dempster
This will be the Cubs #1 off-season priority. Dempster was the Cubs rock in the rotation and led the Cubs with a VORP of 57.5, while boasting a 17-6 record with a 2.96 ERA. To put it in perspective, the closest Cubs pitcher to Dempster’s value was Carlos Zambrano with a VORP of 35.7. Turning 32, this will probably be Dempster’s last contract and he will want something in the range of four years and 14MM per. If the Cubs don’t move pieces they will have to choose between him and Kerry Wood, without adding a lefty bat the Cubs front office has been talking about.

9. Re-sign Kerry Wood
Wood is secondary to Dempster, but signing him is extremely important because of the depth he adds to the pen. Sure, Carlos Marmol may be ready to close and is probably the more dominant pitcher, but without Wood the Cubs bullpen becomes very ordinary. Like Dempster, Wood, who is also turning 32, is looking at his final big contract and will ask for something around 3 years and 10MM per. Hopefully, Wood, as a “Chicago-guy”, will give Jim Hendry a hometown deal for less.

8. Minor details
The Cubs should either implement their 3MM team option for Henry Blanco or try to negotiate a contract for less. I hope they do the ladder, because every dollar will be important. They also need not worry with arbitration contracts, as nobody will be making a Ryan Howard-esk 10MM dollar case. They also need to re-evaluate Rich Hill and have a pretty good idea where he is at and what they can do with him (trade bait?) by spring training (he is currently pitching in Venezuela). Also, move Kosuke Fukudome to CF NOW. Even if he hits as poorly as he did this year, it is easier to forgive those numbers as a platoon centerfielder with Reed Johnson.

7. Trade Jason Marquis
Marquis is set to make 9.875MM in 2009 and seems to be very expendable with Sean Marshal showing that he is ready to become a full-time starting pitcher. Marshal's VORP was only about seven points less than Marquis in about 100 less innings, (VORP correlate positively with amount of innings you pitch, unless you suck) which exemplifies how expendable Marquis is. Add to the fact that Hill could be back to 2007 form and Marquis becomes a luxury. This trade would be pretty much a straight salary dump to free up some cash to re-sign Dempster and Wood and possible allow for a lefty bat.

6. Trade Derrek Lee
Trading both Lee and Marquis would guarantee enough money to add a lefty bat and re-sign both Wood and Dempster. There has been rumors about Lee going to SF for a young arm, which would be peachy, but again I would gladly take the money (13MM through 2010). Before I go further, I know what you are saying, “But it’s Derrek Lee.” I know, I know. But Lee is on the natural downside of his career. Since his career year in 2005 (minus 2006 when he got hurt), Lee’s OPS+ has dropped from 174 to 131 in 2007 to 110 this year. It’s nothing against the 32-year-old, it’s just that he is getting old and becoming average. The Cubs have an easy replacement in Mark DeRosa (21 HR, 118 OPS+) and Micah Hoffpauir.

5. Sign Rafael Furcal
This would kind of be a ballsy move by Hendry, but SS is probably the one position that the Cubs could upgrade the most in. Ryan Theriot was very solid this year and got on base at a solid .387 clip, but he is a below average fielder, doesn’t steal bases at an efficient enough rate or hit enough extra bases to declare him an indispensable everyday player (93 OPS+). I do not think the Cubs will go this way because Furcal will be VERY expensive, but he would fill the leadoff hitter need, has good speed, above average fielding ability and steals bases extremely efficiently. This would also make Theriot and Ronny Cedeno movable, while adding depth to the bench.

4. Sign Bobby Abreu or Adam Dunn or trade for Brian Giles
This is probably the route the Cubs will go. This is an easy move for Hendry if he is able to dump one of the larger contracts above (if the payroll is 150MM) and a definite move if they dump both.

Abreu’s career slash stats are .300/.405/.498. He is getting old but has shown no signs of slowing offensively. However, his defense is below average and the Cubs may hesitate to go after him if they have concerns with him playing a very tough Wrigley Field right field. He should be asking around 10MM per for maybe two years.

Dunn, on the other hand, is younger and provides more pop, equal OBP and probably a little worse right field. He would require a much larger and longer commitment, making him a tough sign even if the contract is back loaded – something around 14MM per for four years.

Giles is an upgrade defensively, but would be a downgrade offensively compared to Abreu or Dunn. He would be cheaper at 9MM and only a one-year commitment. However, this would require Giles to drop his no-trade clause in his contract.

Personally, I don’t like Raul Ibanez or Mark Kotsay for this position because they are aging and showing it. Also a young Jeremy Hermida might be a possibility.

3. Trust your system
The Cubs have depth on their bench. Mike Fontenot showed why he was drafted in the first round (131 OPS+), while Micah Hoffpauir has put up these numbers: .340 AVG, 41 HR and 173 RBI in 153 games the last two years in Iowa. The thing that worries me about Hoffpauir is his high strikeout verse low walk rate. Furthermore, DeRosa’s flexibility gives the bench even more depth, allowing Lou Piniella to mix and match at will.

The system is also full of power arms like Jeff Samardzija, Jose Ascanio, Kevin Hart and Angel Guzman. The Cubs also seemed to be very high on the left handed Randy Wells. Interestingly enough, Guzman was considered the one of the best arms in the world at one point and should come back even stronger next year after having Tommy John surgery last year.

2. Rotation and bullpen
Rotation------------------------Bullpen
1. Dempster--------------------Swing Gaudin
2. Lilly--------------------------RP Via trade or Hart or Wuertz
3. Zabrano----------------------RP Guzman or Wuertz
4. Marshal/Hill------------------RP Cotts
5. Harden-----------------------RP Samardjiza
6. Gaudin-----------------------SU Marmol
---------------------------------CL Wood

1. Lineup, positions and bench
Lineup-------------------------------Pos
1. Furcal or Soriano------------------C Soto
2. DeRosa or Fontenot or Theriot---1B Hoffpauir or DeRosa
3. Abreu or Dunn-------------------2B DeRosa or Fontenot
4. Ramirez--------------------------3B Ramirez
5. Soriano---------------------------SS Furcal or Theriot
6. Hoffpauir or DeRosa--------------LF Soriano
7. Soto------------------------------CF Fukudome/Johnson
8. Fukudome/Johnson---RF Abreu or Dunn or DeRosa/Hoffpauir
9. Pitcher

Bench
C Blanco
CIF/COF Hoffpauir
INF Fontenot
OF Pie or INF Cedeno
OF Johnson/Fukudome

*This is all speculation. For example if a the Rays don’t use their club option on Carl Crawford, he may become the Cubs #1 free agency pick up to fill their CF need. Or they just don't do anything.

From the archive: Top Ten potential moves on the south side