Top Ten Cubs off-season steps/moves

BY DUBS

The 2008 Cubs were probably the best team in the NL. Unfortunately, that did not translate in the postseason for the second straight year. The good news for the Cubs is that they do not need to do all that much to be a 90+-win team in 2009. However, there are some major issues that need to be addressed, as some of their top pitchers have become free agents. Also, the free agent market is full of players who can make an instant impact.

Unfortunately, the Cubs are already committed to something like 130MM after arbitration (2007 payroll ended up a little under 130MM by seasons end). This means they will probably have to dump a salary or two via trade to be able to sign their very valuable pitching free agents and a lefty bat. The Cubs have talked about increasing their payroll, but by how much (140MM or maybe 150MM)? Here are some steps the Cubs could possibly make and their potential roster for next year*.

10. Re-sign Dempster
This will be the Cubs #1 off-season priority. Dempster was the Cubs rock in the rotation and led the Cubs with a VORP of 57.5, while boasting a 17-6 record with a 2.96 ERA. To put it in perspective, the closest Cubs pitcher to Dempster’s value was Carlos Zambrano with a VORP of 35.7. Turning 32, this will probably be Dempster’s last contract and he will want something in the range of four years and 14MM per. If the Cubs don’t move pieces they will have to choose between him and Kerry Wood, without adding a lefty bat the Cubs front office has been talking about.

9. Re-sign Kerry Wood
Wood is secondary to Dempster, but signing him is extremely important because of the depth he adds to the pen. Sure, Carlos Marmol may be ready to close and is probably the more dominant pitcher, but without Wood the Cubs bullpen becomes very ordinary. Like Dempster, Wood, who is also turning 32, is looking at his final big contract and will ask for something around 3 years and 10MM per. Hopefully, Wood, as a “Chicago-guy”, will give Jim Hendry a hometown deal for less.

8. Minor details
The Cubs should either implement their 3MM team option for Henry Blanco or try to negotiate a contract for less. I hope they do the ladder, because every dollar will be important. They also need not worry with arbitration contracts, as nobody will be making a Ryan Howard-esk 10MM dollar case. They also need to re-evaluate Rich Hill and have a pretty good idea where he is at and what they can do with him (trade bait?) by spring training (he is currently pitching in Venezuela). Also, move Kosuke Fukudome to CF NOW. Even if he hits as poorly as he did this year, it is easier to forgive those numbers as a platoon centerfielder with Reed Johnson.

7. Trade Jason Marquis
Marquis is set to make 9.875MM in 2009 and seems to be very expendable with Sean Marshal showing that he is ready to become a full-time starting pitcher. Marshal's VORP was only about seven points less than Marquis in about 100 less innings, (VORP correlate positively with amount of innings you pitch, unless you suck) which exemplifies how expendable Marquis is. Add to the fact that Hill could be back to 2007 form and Marquis becomes a luxury. This trade would be pretty much a straight salary dump to free up some cash to re-sign Dempster and Wood and possible allow for a lefty bat.

6. Trade Derrek Lee
Trading both Lee and Marquis would guarantee enough money to add a lefty bat and re-sign both Wood and Dempster. There has been rumors about Lee going to SF for a young arm, which would be peachy, but again I would gladly take the money (13MM through 2010). Before I go further, I know what you are saying, “But it’s Derrek Lee.” I know, I know. But Lee is on the natural downside of his career. Since his career year in 2005 (minus 2006 when he got hurt), Lee’s OPS+ has dropped from 174 to 131 in 2007 to 110 this year. It’s nothing against the 32-year-old, it’s just that he is getting old and becoming average. The Cubs have an easy replacement in Mark DeRosa (21 HR, 118 OPS+) and Micah Hoffpauir.

5. Sign Rafael Furcal
This would kind of be a ballsy move by Hendry, but SS is probably the one position that the Cubs could upgrade the most in. Ryan Theriot was very solid this year and got on base at a solid .387 clip, but he is a below average fielder, doesn’t steal bases at an efficient enough rate or hit enough extra bases to declare him an indispensable everyday player (93 OPS+). I do not think the Cubs will go this way because Furcal will be VERY expensive, but he would fill the leadoff hitter need, has good speed, above average fielding ability and steals bases extremely efficiently. This would also make Theriot and Ronny Cedeno movable, while adding depth to the bench.

4. Sign Bobby Abreu or Adam Dunn or trade for Brian Giles
This is probably the route the Cubs will go. This is an easy move for Hendry if he is able to dump one of the larger contracts above (if the payroll is 150MM) and a definite move if they dump both.

Abreu’s career slash stats are .300/.405/.498. He is getting old but has shown no signs of slowing offensively. However, his defense is below average and the Cubs may hesitate to go after him if they have concerns with him playing a very tough Wrigley Field right field. He should be asking around 10MM per for maybe two years.

Dunn, on the other hand, is younger and provides more pop, equal OBP and probably a little worse right field. He would require a much larger and longer commitment, making him a tough sign even if the contract is back loaded – something around 14MM per for four years.

Giles is an upgrade defensively, but would be a downgrade offensively compared to Abreu or Dunn. He would be cheaper at 9MM and only a one-year commitment. However, this would require Giles to drop his no-trade clause in his contract.

Personally, I don’t like Raul Ibanez or Mark Kotsay for this position because they are aging and showing it. Also a young Jeremy Hermida might be a possibility.

3. Trust your system
The Cubs have depth on their bench. Mike Fontenot showed why he was drafted in the first round (131 OPS+), while Micah Hoffpauir has put up these numbers: .340 AVG, 41 HR and 173 RBI in 153 games the last two years in Iowa. The thing that worries me about Hoffpauir is his high strikeout verse low walk rate. Furthermore, DeRosa’s flexibility gives the bench even more depth, allowing Lou Piniella to mix and match at will.

The system is also full of power arms like Jeff Samardzija, Jose Ascanio, Kevin Hart and Angel Guzman. The Cubs also seemed to be very high on the left handed Randy Wells. Interestingly enough, Guzman was considered the one of the best arms in the world at one point and should come back even stronger next year after having Tommy John surgery last year.

2. Rotation and bullpen
Rotation------------------------Bullpen
1. Dempster--------------------Swing Gaudin
2. Lilly--------------------------RP Via trade or Hart or Wuertz
3. Zabrano----------------------RP Guzman or Wuertz
4. Marshal/Hill------------------RP Cotts
5. Harden-----------------------RP Samardjiza
6. Gaudin-----------------------SU Marmol
---------------------------------CL Wood

1. Lineup, positions and bench
Lineup-------------------------------Pos
1. Furcal or Soriano------------------C Soto
2. DeRosa or Fontenot or Theriot---1B Hoffpauir or DeRosa
3. Abreu or Dunn-------------------2B DeRosa or Fontenot
4. Ramirez--------------------------3B Ramirez
5. Soriano---------------------------SS Furcal or Theriot
6. Hoffpauir or DeRosa--------------LF Soriano
7. Soto------------------------------CF Fukudome/Johnson
8. Fukudome/Johnson---RF Abreu or Dunn or DeRosa/Hoffpauir
9. Pitcher

Bench
C Blanco
CIF/COF Hoffpauir
INF Fontenot
OF Pie or INF Cedeno
OF Johnson/Fukudome

*This is all speculation. For example if a the Rays don’t use their club option on Carl Crawford, he may become the Cubs #1 free agency pick up to fill their CF need. Or they just don't do anything.

From the archive: Top Ten potential moves on the south side

Top Ten Chicago Sports Disappointments Since 1985

BY DUBS

As I am writing this introduction, Ken Griffey Jr. just struck out to end game four of the ALDS and the White Sox 2008 season. To a degree the Sox season was somewhat of a surprise and a success. Many believed they did not ever have a shot at the playoffs. For the Cubs it was quite the opposite. Most “experts” believed the Cubs would win it all, or at least make it to the World Series. THIS YEAR WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE YEAR. Jonathan Broxton ended that.

To try and cope with the Chicago futility the last couple days, I asked the boys of TTCS to share with me their most disappointing Chicago sports moments in their lifetimes. Since we are all pretty young, we started with 1985. Here is what they came up with. Also, what are your greatest Chicago sports disappointments (from any era)? Vent in the comment section.

Matt O

2006 Super Bowl XLI - The 1985 Bears are undoubtedly the most celebrated team in the history of this city. Even though I was alive when the original Monsters of the Midway were punishing quarterbacks nationwide, there is an unspeakable emptiness deep within when I speak of them. Despite being able to name nearly every player on that roster, the 1985 Bears weren’t really my team. Sure, I still revel in their dominance as much as the next Bears fan, but the memories I have are more from highlights than watching things unfold in person. I attribute this mostly to the fact that I don’t remember much of that time period. And you can’t even blame me considering I was only four-years-old.

And that’s why watching the Bears lose to the Colts in Super Bowl XLI was the most disappointing sports moment in my life.

They were MY team.

I knew them inside and out. I knew their tendencies, their stats, their bios, their everything. I absorbed every single piece of literature I could throughout the week and rooted for them like a man possessed every Sunday. And when that fateful day came when we were to cement our legacy as the NFL’s most respected franchise, I teetered on the edge of pure insanity, going nearly four hours without speaking to anyone except for inanimate objects who I could take my rage out on.

You know the rest.

Fumble here, fumble there, blown coverage here, missed tackle there and boom: Colts 29, Bears 17. I have yet to let this one go and probably never will. I will never forgive Lovie Smith for leaving Rex Grossman in that game to literally throw it all away. I will never forgive the defense for letting Reggie Wayne embarrass them on the biggest stage in the world.

I will never forgive the 2006 Chicago Bears.

The Dismantling of the Chicago Bulls Dynasty - Michael Jordan. Scottie Pippen. Phil Jackson. Each wiped away from the collective conscious of Chicagoans by one man’s larger than life ego: Jerry Krause.

For six years we were spoiled by the Bulls. For six years we were the proud fans of a franchise and a player that will go down as the greatest to EVER play the game. But that wasn’t good enough for Jerry Krause. Why, you ask? To Krause, recognition of his self-describe brilliance superseded any thoughts of doing whatever necessary to keep this legendary team together until their day of retirement was upon them. Strong enough words do no exist in the English dictionary to describe my personal hatred towards Jerry Krause. In an instant, the Bulls were transformed from the greatest ever to the league’s laughing stock in 1999.

All good things do come to an end at some point. This I cannot deny. But you’d much rather wait for it to end naturally instead of allowing a bloated egomaniac to end it on his own terms. Disappointment is the understatement of the century in terms of this debacle.

Barnes

2006 Super Bowl - After the excitement of the Hester return, everything looked great. The Bears looked unstoppable in the first quarter. I had to tell my buddy who was drinking profusely to slow down because he wasn't going to remember "history." I have never been that excited in my life. Then the rest of the game happened. The D looked terrible and Rex Grossman played like crap. I have never felt such a let down in my life.

The 1994 MLB Strike - This is simple. Jerry Reinsdorf cost the Sox a playoff spot and maybe even a World Series Championship. The Sox were awesome and their owner was too greedy to get a deal done. Nothing was worse for a Sox fan than seeing your “leader” be the cause for a chance at a WS ring.

Phillips

The deterioration of DePaul men's basketball - DePaul basketball was a once proud and honored Chicago tradition that sold out arenas, won over fans nationally thanks to WGN telecasts and had tremendous success thanks to Hall-of-Famer Ray Meyer. In the 84-85 season Coach Ray gave the head coaching job to his son Joey. Joey continued some minor success thanks to tremendous reputation until the program started to collapse in the early 1990's. Since then DePaul has acheived minimal success even though their tradition and legacy extends back to the 1920's, all the while many fans and younger fans overlook the tremendous past in favor of other programs.

The Year 1994 - This has to be number one. Professional sports have made me cry three times in my life and two of those times occurred during 1994. First Jordan's retirement came on October 6th, 1993. The effect it had on people all over Chicago was devestating. The Bulls were still 55-27, but having season tickets without your hero, as I did, became a chilling reality and one that I never wanted to face again. The second thing that made me cry was the baseball strike. Baseball was my favorite thing in the world in 1994. I was obsessed enough by the 1993 Division champion White Sox, but the 1994 team had a tremendous chance to advance to the World Series and possibly win it. It wasn't only the White Sox that was so bad, I loved baseball. I woke up at 6 AM before school every morning to watch the complete hour of Sportscenter and I remember the day the season was cancelled I cried my eyes out while watching the montage of Joe Carter, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas and Matt Williams. My Mom had to call my school and say I was sick because I was so upset.

Couple that with the Chicago Stadium closing, the Hue Hollins b.s. call in the NBA playoffs, and mediocre Blackhawks and Cubs teams and this was one awful year.

Ricky

Bears Super Bowl loss- When a team gets to a title game, you believe it can do anything. Such was the case with the Bears in 2006. If they could pull off that miracle comeback in Arizona, they could do anything. That was the worst thing about losing the Super Bowl. Everything before that made the season feel magical, like the team could do no wrong. Then you mix in Peyton Manning, Rex Grossman and a little rain, and it's all gone.

Chicago Bulls post-MJ - For people who grew up on MJ, we always took the Bulls for granted. They were going to win the NBA championship every year, because that was all we knew. So when the Bulls broke up, and transformed from, literally, the best team ever to the worst team ever, it just made it that much tougher to stomach. In the span of one year, the Bulls best player went from Michael Jordon to Brent Barry. No wonder it was such a struggle to ever win 20 games.

Dubs

2003 Chicago Cubs - For me baseball is, well, life. I played it, I coach it, I teach it, I follow it, I would drink it if it came in an alcoholic carbonated form. So when your team, the team you have followed since your first game at the age of sixth months, decides to blow a 3-2 series lead, while their one and two completely shit themselves, it is quite the devastating moment in your life. To answer your question, yes, I cried. It really hurt me. I had invested everything into that team. I could see the World Series. It was so close. And then...

2008 Chicago Cubs - The only way I can describe the 2008 Cubs is like an abusive alcoholic dad. He beats you for years, but decides to sober up one day. The beatings stop and things seem to be good and happy, but in the back of your mind you still remember what he can become and fear him a little. Then one day, when things are at their best, the inevitable happens – he drinks again. He whoops you, your mom and your brother. You are back in hell, but this time it hurts a little more, because you were beginning to believe things were changing. This was the 2008 Chicago Cubs.

From day one the 2008 Cubs were supposed to win the World Series. That was it. There was nothing that could stop them. Nothing. They signed Kosuke Fukudome. They signed Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds. They traded for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin. Life was good.

Then weird things happened. Fukudome started to suck. Edmonds started to look old. Harden was less dominant. Gaudin hurt his back partying near a dumpster(?) The Cubs were still good, but they showed weaknesses. We all ignored them.

“They are just coasting for a while. Taking a break. They will be fine,” we told ourselves.

We were wrong, dead wrong. They were flat and lost. They were supposed to win and they ripped our hearts out. It will never be the same.

What are your biggest Chicago sports disappointments (from any era)?

Top Ten Cubs/Dodgers position matchups

BY DUBS

We will go through each position like in a scorecard (1=Pitcher, 2=Catcher, etc, except 10=Bullpen) but in reverse order and see who has the best matchup at each position in the Cubs vs. Dodgers series. This will mostly be stat based, so for you David Eckstein/Darin Erstad white-man grittiness-fans, this may not be the blog for you. Wait. I’m sorry. How could I forget about Casey Blake, Ryan Theriot and Blake DeWitt!!! Sub-100 OPS+’s to follow!!!! However, for the rest of you feel free to take your shoes off, sit back and lets try to sort this madness out like Nerdstradamus’ (see what I did there?).

10. Bullpen
Carlos Marmol/Kerry Wood vs. Three guys you’ve never heard of and Chan-Ho-fucking Park/Takashi Saito

The Dodger bullpen has been flat out nasty this year. They are second in ERA, walks given up and are first in strikeouts, AVG against, SLG against, OBP against, blah, blah, blah. They are fucking sick. If the Cubs fall down early in games it WILL be hard to come back. However, Saito is coming off injury and may be rusty trombone going into the playoffs (last 6 games, 4.76 ERA. 2.49 season ERA).

The Cubs, on the other hand, have been good. It has been a season of ups and downs in the ‘pen. They too fall into the top half of most statistical categories, but the season that Wood and Marmol have had (dominant one day, shaky the next) exemplifies the Cubs bullpen as a whole this year. This series may come down to how good the Cubs ‘pen is, which can go, well, either way.

Advantage: Dodgers

9. Right field
Kosuke Fukudome/Micah Hoffpauir/Mark DeRosa vs. Andre Ethier

Depending on how Lou plays it, this matchup is either a HUGE advantage for the Dodgers or pretty much a push. If Fukudome starts, advantage Dodgers, but if Hoffpauir starts it goes to the Dodgers slightly because of Ethier’s experience (three full years in MLB), but if DeRosa starts it is a practical push. It’s actually pretty funny how similar they are in numbers. Unfortunately, DeRosa has a bit of a calf injury and may come out a bit timid.

Advantage: Dodgers

8. Center field
Jim Edmonds vs. Matt Kemp

56 walks, 19 home runs, 138 OPS+ in 85 games. Those are Edmonds numbers. Those are awesome. With the Dodgers only tossing righties in the shortened series, the Cubs will most likely sit Reed Johnson. Edmonds will need to be the lefty in the middle of the lineup that keeps the Dodger bullpen honest.

LA counters with Matt Kemp, a 23-year-old future all-star. He, however, is a year away. Kemp's average .340 OBP and 18 home runs in 155 games makes him good, but nothing special.

Advantage (strangely): Cubs

7. Left field
Alfonso Soriano vs. Manny Ramirez

FUCK. THIS. Ramirez swing is perfect. I have been trying to get my swing to look like his for years. It’s flawless, much like my writing or Megan Fox.

You will be hard pressed to find a matchup that Soriano will lose, but what Manny has done with the Dodgers (.396/.489/.743. .743!!! WTF?) is insane and if he hits anything like it, left field MUST go to the Dodgers.

Advantage: Dodgers

6. Shortstop
Ryan Theriot vs. Angel Berroa/Rafael Furcal (if healthy)/Nomar Garciaparra(?)

I feel like this is kind of a battle of the least feeble (or an incredibly intense cripple fight).

Berroa is terrible, he might as well bring a used condom to the plate. Furcal was awesome to start the year, but got hurt and who really knows what you're going to get from him. Dodgers.com has Nomar listed as a shortstop and second in the depth charts. But, really? I can’t make heads or tails of this shit. Fuck it. Homerism time. You win, Theriot. The LSU grads .387 OBP is super, even though he fucked that all up by doing this 20 times.

Advantage: Cubs

5. Third Base
Aramis Ramirez vs. Casey Blake

This is almost laughable. Blake has hit more home runs with the Dodgers, but still sucks a fat nut. He has a .313 OBP since joining the Dodgers. Aramis’ split stats .289/.380/.518. A cool Aramis stat: 27 home runs. A lame stat: 111 RBI. And a park/historically adjusted Aramis stat: 130 OPS+.

Advantage: Cubs

4. Second Base
Mark DeRosa/Mike Fontenot vs. Jeff Kent (if healthy)/Blake DeWitt

This position depends on whom Lou puts in right field, either way the Cubs OWN LA at second. Lets make this simple…

OPS+ (100 equals average major leaguer)
Kent…91
DeWitt…88
DeRosa…120
Fontenot…133

Advantage: Cubs

3. First base
Derrek Lee vs. James Loney/Nomar Garciaparra

Lee had a good season. He hit 20 home runs, 41 doubles and OBP’d a decent .361. He is on the downside of his career, but is still producing at an above average level. Neither Loney nor Garciaparra match Lee, but Joe Torre can play the lefty/righty thing if he so chooses. Regardless, Lee is better.

Advantage: Cubs

2. Catcher
Geovany Soto vs. Russell Martin

Martin was supposed to be THE catcher this year in the NL. He had a good year, but was a bit of a let down only hitting 13 home runs. On the other hand, he did OBP an impressive .385.

However, he was out-shined by the incredibly well kept Soto (the man's goatee is perfect, no homo). The 25-year-old dropped 23 bombs, laced 35 doubles and OPS’d .868. He played a very solid catcher and seemed to handle his pitchers well, even standing up to veterans like Carlos Zambrano. For the record, Geo is hurt, but the extent of the injury is not know. So, until we know how serious it is, lets just assume/pretend he is just dandy.

Advantage: Cubs

1. Starting pitchers

The Cubs starters pretty much led the NL in every pitching category. The Dodgers were not to far behind though. Besides Chad Billingsley, the Dodgers starters have been good, but not dominant. This series will come down to game two – Zambrano vs. Billingsley. Otherwise, the Cubs have a leg up in every contest. Dempster is better than an aging Lowe, Harden, probably the best pitcher in the series, is WAY superior to Kuroda (only has 116 strikeouts in 183.3 innings) and Lilly should out pitch a very mediocre Maddux.

Advantage: Cubs

DUBS BOLD PREDICTION: CUBS IN FOUR

Top Ten Reasons the Sox Won’t Make the Playoffs

BY DUBS

I have done this for the Cubs and figured with the 2008 season coming to a close, the White Sox deserve the same treatment. Here are the Top Ten Reasons the Sox Won’t Make the Playoffs.

10. Rayz*

If this were any other year since the inception of the Rayz, the Sox would be a lock for the playoffs. However, the 2008 Rayz have decided to be awesome and have made this season a two bull rodeo with three riders looking on, vying for their shot at an eight second ride (I used to live in Texas).

*TTCS writer Ricky O’Donnell deserves credit for the “z” spelling of the Rayz when they officially change their name to "The Rayz" in 2020.

9. Something unexpected happens

Something crazy happens, like the Sox bus crashes on the way back to their hotel in Minnesota. Jenks’ cold beer cuts his lip as he drinks it causing him to flail his arms wildly, poking one of Floyd’s eyes out. This would be one plausible scenario in which the Sox could lose one to two major cogs in their winning machine.

8. The hot/cold offense

The Sox can score runs and lots of them. Chicago is second in the AL in runs scored this season, but have shown times that they can go cold as a team. If this happens at the wrong time, the Sox could find themselves looking from the outside in come October.

7. The ghost of Frank Chance

The player/manager of the 1908 Cubs will not let the Sox win the World Series on the 100 year anniversary of his, and the Cubs, last championship. Chance was a very aggressive man who would first bowl over AJ, spike him in the nuts and die his hair with his own blood than see the Sox win another World Series.

6. Red Sox

If the Sox do fail to hold the Central, they will be in a dogfight with the other Sox for the Wild Card (who currently have a better record than the bleached Sox). Both teams are basically equal in run differential and other fringe statistics. There is no solid way to determine who will win this battle. If this scenario comes to fruition, then the AL Wild Card, and the Sox playoff hopes, may just depend on who gets hot in the last week of the season.

5. Ozzie Guillen goes crazy

Ozzie finally looses his cool for good and goes on a murderous rampage. He starts in the clubhouse, choosing AJ as his first victim, moving onto OC and finally Swish. With the big three pains-in-his-ass out of the way, Guillen moves onto his greatest rival in any dugout, Lou Piniella.

Finding Piniella in a local diner, Guillen calmly walks up to the large Spaniard, screaming obscenities in barely comprehendible Spanglish, “I can rap better than you!” Even after thrashing multiple times with a machete, barrowed form Ugueth Urbina, Guillen’s blade cannot penetrate the large gut of Piniella. Breathing deeply from exhaustion, Guillen leaves the one-time Yankee bleeding, but alive. Guillen, now satisfied with the blood he has spilled over baseball field quarrels is ready to move onto his greatest threat; Jay Mariotti.

The fiery Venezuelan finds the loudmouth Mariotti asleep in his upscale Chicago condo. He is in the arms of young Filipino man. Guillen makes quick work of the younger Asian man, expertly cutting his throat. Blood soaks the purple silk sheets. Mariotti screams quite girlishly realizing his impending doom….You get the point.

4. Pitching

The Sox ERA has risen over a point in the second half of the season. As #8 has shown, this is a scary thought for a team that has binged and purged all season long on offense. If the pitching continues its upward trend, the Sox will struggle during times when the offense cools off.

3. Can’t beat good teams

The Sox have dominated terrible teams (as they should), yet they cannot beat anybody good. This season they have gone 18-25 against teams over .500 in the AL. If this trend continues the Sox will not be able to hold onto the Central because of reason #1.

2. Twins

Chicago has a 42 run lead over the Twins in run differential, yet the Twins are keeping pace with the Sox. Year after year Minnesota plays over their heads, never, ever, ever going away. If the Twins keep playing at the level they are right now they will overtake the Sox as they play only 10 more games against teams over .500.

1. Schedule

Sorry Sox fans, but the Sox only play the Royals three more times. Chicago has had a pretty lame schedule to this point of the season and they have taken advantage of it. However, starting today the Sox will be playing 17 games against teams over .500, verse only 14 games against teams under the mediocre line. As #3 has shown, the Sox do not play well against good teams and are in serious threat of dropping out of the playoffs.

Top Ten Baseball Fallacies

BY DUBS

There are a lot of things that people believe about baseball that are flat out not true. Here are the Top Ten. Basically this is my ode to FJM.

10. Derek Jeter is a good shortstop
This really isn’t news to anyone who actually follows baseball, but here we go. I know math is for nerds and nerds have to wear thick glasses and don’t know how to talk to girls and all that jazz, but two of these nerdy-nerds came up with mathematical equations to determine quality defenders. Defensive ability is the hardest thing in baseball to determine because errors are subjective and range can be difficult to judge because, once again, it is based on a human judgment. So these guys decided to develop some formulas to better understand who is good and bad. And to the chagrin of the entire city of New York -- Derek Jeter ranked at the bottom from 2002-2005. Guess who ranked second during that span? Alex Rodriguez. Mike Celizic’s head just blew off.

9. Baseball Tonight makes any sense

Watch it once, no LISTEN to what comes out of these people’s mouths. I feel so bad for Karl Ravech. He tries to keep things together, but how can he with what he’s surrounded by?

Kruk literally predicted Randy Johnson to win 30 games when he was a Yankee. Fine. But then he stuck by it even though Randy mathematically had no shot in hell (24 starts left, sitting at a record of 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA [May, 21 2005]). 24 + 4 = 28 not 30. He was probably just being lazy and didn’t want to do actual work to figure out if it was even possible, but seriously? 30 wins? That hasn't happened since 1968. But I'm sure he knew that.

EY sounds like a less retarded Emmitt Smith and Steve Phillips literally believes in six tools. Apparently, position players are supposed to be able to pitch awesome as well in order to be considered a Steve Phillips’ SIX TOOL PLAYER. For those of you out there who don't know what the five tools (for normal people, like MLB scouts) are: hit for average, hit for power, run, throw and catch (fielding). Oh, he’s orange too.

8. Dusty Baker knows something about baseball

I have always contended that Dusty would be a terrific assistant or bench coach-type guy. He seems to keep his players loose and in good spirits, which is very important for the fragile psyches of professional athletes. However, he is quite the opposite for actual baseball insight or intelligent thought. He literally hates people who get on-base. He would prefer guys who “[drive] in runs and [score] runs.” Besides the obvious, that you can’t do either of those things without being on base, he continued to say that those jackasses who get on base are only “clogging up the bases.” Or in other words, those potential runs for someone to potentially drive in are stupid-faces and should leave Dusty alone.

Beyond this he once batted out of order here in Chicago and then did it again this year in Cinci. He also tried to bunt with Adam Dunn, the MLB leader in home runs, who, after looking retarded bunting, promptly hit a three-run walk-off bomb. Furthermore, I personally witnessed him leave in Paul Bako, a lefty to face a lefty pitcher, then the next half inning bring in Joe Girardi, a righty, to catch. WTF??????

How is he running a MLB team? Meh.

7. “Moneyball” is strictly about getting on-base a bunch

This book has been misinterpreted so badly it is sick. There are so many haters of “Moneyball” because they don’t understand it. This book was about how a small market team can survive in a league where there is no cap with teams spending over 200 million. So, in order to compete they had to find talents that other teams undervalued, therefore making these players cheap on the market. In those days it was guys that got on base a lot and hit home runs. Teams did not take the time to do the proper research on the difference between college players and high school kids. Well, now other teams have done the research and these factors are no longer undervalued, hence the large tendency to draft college kids this year. Now the smaller market teams must find new ways to find value in the market.

Note to hokey, hackneyed sports writers: "Moneyball" is not about ruining the mystic of baseball, but to better understand players abilities using statistical data.


6. Just because you are Ricky O’Donnell (short, paper-thin, white, gritty-as-balls-after-camping) and play baseball professionally, does NOT make you good at baseball.

Sportswriters tend to disagree with this. If you don’t believe me read this, this and this. Those same players have career OPS+’s of 88, 90 and 94 respectively (100 is league average). Oh, you can also throw in Aarond Rowand if you’d like for the reason I mentioned here (just keep scrolling).

5. Adam Dunn is bad at baseball

This is kind of connected to #6 and #7. The people that love the #6-ers don’t like Dunn because they don’t understand what numbers tell us about a player. They see a slow, white country-boy that strikes out a lot and has a bad average. What they don’t get is that strikeouts are just slightly worse than making a “normal” out. They don’t see the fact that he gets on-base at a career .380 clip, which is about 50 points higher than league average. What they don’t see is that he is about to clip 40 home runs for the fifth straight year. What they don’t see is a career OPS+ of 130. He is an offensive force, yet people are too lazy or stupid to figure out what it means to be a good offensive player. Either way, he gets a bad rap for no legitimate reason.

4. Using All-Star games as criterion for HoF induction

Let’s keep this simple by using this formula: # in increasing order) Fact, i.e. example of why this is stupid. OK, READY? GO: 1) Fans vote the starters, i.e. Kosuke Fukudome 2) Players vote in subs, i.e. Joe Crede 3) Previous years world series manager’s choose pitchers and bench players, i.e. The 2006 AL team.

3. Gold gloves are meaningful

Refer to #10. JETER HAS THREE!!! Plus, they are voted on by coaches and managers who may see teams about 20 times at most a year.


2. The All-Star Game deciding home field advantage for the World Series is good

Why don’t we just flip a coin? This is such crap. Who cares what league has the better “all-stars”? As we have agreed upon in #4, each all-star team is decided by the wrong, biased people that tend to choose lesser deserving players based on team loyalties. So, how could these relatively arbitrary teams decide who has home field advantage for the most important event in sports? It makes no sense. Bud Selig made a bad event (the 2002 all-star game) into the something even worse. Lame.

1. Sports writers are the most qualified to vote on anything

Most MVP and HoF voters are beat writers or columnists for local newspapers. This means they follow ONE team or ONE city. How can they really be objective enough or have the time (I don’t blame them) to make these decisions. Maybe they go on word of mouth like this voter. Many tend to vote for the best story, the “grinder-est” of players or ignore certain aspects of the game, like position or even the dreaded VORP. It seems there must be more qualified people who are less vested in personal relationships (lets remember they have to work with these players for access) and understand the varying teams and statistical methods used to define what a “good” baseball player is.

Top Ten Reason to Hate the Cubs

I’m a Cubs fan.

It has been an extremely frustrating relationship – borderline abusive. I give and give and give and the Cubs, in return, have slowly eaten me out at my soul from the inside out. After years of torment, I understand why Cubs fans, like Mike Murphy of WSCR, would hate the Cubs, but it seemed odd to me that our south side brethren hated the Cubs with such vigor as well. We are the lovable losers. How could we in any way offend you guys? The Cubs haven’t hurt anyone in like a hundred years. We haven’t even had the opportunity to piss anyone off in 45 years. But after working at a local newspaper under the abusive leadership of Mike Clark (also of sportspros(e)), I now have a better understanding of why you guys are such haters. Here are the Top Ten Reasons to Hate the Cubs (as Sox and Cubs fan).

Clark’s Top Five Reason to Hate the Cubs as a Sox Fan

5. Who's on first?

http://fireloupiniella.files.wordpress.com/2007/02/ron-santo.jpg

Ron Santo belongs in the Hall of Fame as a player, but really, is there a less prepared broadcaster in America? I'm not sure he knows who the opponent is till the third inning or so.

4. You can't get there from here

http://libizblog.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/smart-car.jpg

What a choice: Drive and get ripped off to park your car in a lot where you're blocked in till after last call at Cubby Bear or be wedged sardine-like onto a Red Line train or Clark Street bus.

3. Clueless fans

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2411/2378647060_ac44623945.jpg?v=0

No, guys, that medium-depth fly ball will NOT leave the park. Act like you've seen a major league game before and only cheer when something truly notable happens.

2. Wrigley Field

http://www.cubs-fans.com/images/wrigley_field.jpg

Where Cubs fans see ivy and tradition, most people see falling concrete, obstructed views and hour-long waits at overtaxed concession stands for lousy food.

1. One bad century

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2003/writers/david_vecsey/08/21/cubs_fans/p1_cub_fan_all.jpg

Usually in America, if you sell a product that doesn't do what it's supposed to, you go out of business. But here are the Cubs, without a championship since the early years of the 20th century, still selling tickets at a record pace. Never has mediocrity been so lucrative.

Dubs’ Top Five Reasons to Hate the Cubs as a Cubs Fan

5. Ticket Prices

http://cubs.mlb.com/images/2003/05/29/EwVW8BJj.jpg

$45 for bleacher seats seems a bit excessive. It takes like half a months salary for us poor bloggers just to enjoy a game at the friendly confines. Sucks to be poor.

4. Ronnie “Woo Woo”

http://www.theheckler.com/news/articlefiles/1002-AaronandRonnieWooWoo.jpg

A friend of mine asked the question that if there was one person you would kill and get away with it, who would it be? The usual evil emperors of world history like Hitler and Stalin came up. Then my other friend leaned over and said Ronnie “Woo Woo”. We all silently nodded in agreement.

3. The Dusty Baker Years

http://www.vaguespace.net/photos/uncategorized/p1_baker_getty.jpg

He literally said he didn’t like guys who walked, because they “clogged the base paths.” He’s right though. I hate guys that get on base a lot and improve our team’s chances of scoring. Why is it so hard to realize that increased # of base runners = more runs. Look at the Cubs now. They walk a ton and score a ton. Simple, easy, awesome. He also batted out of order with the Cubs, and then did it again with the Reds. WTF? What were the Cubs thinking? I hate my life.

2. Signing Jeff Blauser

http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/265010.jpgv=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=17A4AD9FDB9CF1934A2752006EF5F0EDC4547B0EC9514E91284831B75F48EF45

This one is 100% personal. Mr. Blauser bled the Cubs for more than 8 million dollars over two years. Now, Blauser hit .300 and OPB’d .400 twice, oddly enough in contract years. Coincidence? The Cubs were so blind on this one it hurts. He OPS’d .885 the year before becoming a Cub. .885 at SS! Awesome! Then he decided to become a lazy ass and came back the next year, after getting paid, to put up a .639 OPS. Really? I hate you Jeff Blauser.

1. 100-freakin’-years

http://www.cubby-blue.com/my_weblog/images/2007/12/30/gravestone.jpg

Can we win, like, just one. Please?

Top Ten Events Mrs. Dubs and I Want to See at Wrigley

The last few years the Cubs have been trying to use Wrigley for events other than baseball. In the past this included Jimmy Buffet and The Police and this year a minor league game and a Blackhawks’ game are planned for the near future. Mrs. Dubs and I were talking about what else would be cool to have there. This is are Top Ten events we would like to see at Wrigley. What events would you like to see? PS check my take on the whole A-Rod divorce thing at TUP.


Ladies first...

Mrs. Dubs

5. Free Booze Night

http://selectroclash.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/booze.jpg

Free food/drinks/souvenirs for one game, as much as anyone can handle. The game should be Cubs vs. Sox; just imagine how fun that would be- well until Southsiders and Northsiders got wasted and total chaos would follow.

4. Coldplay and Dave Matthews Band in concert

http://www.100xr.com/100_XR/Artists/C/Coldplay/Coldplay.jpg

3. CHICAGO the musical

http://broadwayworld.com/columnpic/ndCHICAGO97_3cellblock.jpg

My favorite musical and movie, performed on stage live at night at Wrigley would be sweet.

2. Chicago Fashion Week

http://images.eonline.com/eol_images/Entire_Site/20070904/293.model.catwalk.090407.jpg

New York and Paris Fashion week draw in the biggest and most respected collection of couture designers from across the globe. Inviting couture designers to showcase their runway designs for fall and spring would be incredible and inspire some dimwitted Midwestern fashion victims to wake up and realize sweatpants and sneakers aren’t gonna cut it. Chanel, Louis Vuitton, Fendi, Gucci, Proenza Schuler, Dior, Marc Jacobs… Absofuckinglutely amazing.

1. Chicago Olympics 2016

http://www.spudart.org/blog/images/2006/2016-chicago-olympics-logo.gif

Every Chicagoan knows that Mayor Daley has recently been petitioning hard and raising money in order to secure the Olympic games come to Chicago in 2016. If the Olympics did make Chicago their final choice, then obviously the no. 1 event to be held at Wrigley Field would be the opening ceremony of the games, track and field events, and the closing ceremony. That would be glorious.

Dubs

5. Big Screens in outfield for away playoff games

http://www.newscopy.org/images/drive_in_voting.jpg

I always thought it would be a good idea for the Cubs to put big screens in left and right field facing the bleachers and show the away playoff games like they did at the United Center. The bleachers would be insane with the over-served, praying for a Cubs victory.

4. An Irish Festival

http://i80.photobucket.com/albums/j175/darkest1420/dropkick%20murphys/dropkick-murphys_coat-of-arms.jpg

Using Wrigley as a hub for a four-block party that would absorb all of the surrounding bars, restaurants, etc. in the neighborhood. Allowing Chicagoans to get drunk on Wrigley Field might be the greatest time in the world. Imagine the random sex that would go on throughout the park. This would include bands like the Dropkick Murphys that would keep the party going for days on end.

3. Bears vs. Packers

http://www.chicagotribune.com/media/photo/2007-12/34251408.jpg

Bringing back Bears football to Wrigley would simply be insane. The Bears faithful could possibly burn down Wrigleyville if the opportunity arose.

2. Gladiator Fights

http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2006/02/23/gladiator_thumb_wideweb__470x304,0.jpg

Could you think of anything as cool as slaves fighting each other as lions and tiger and bears fight along. That combined with the Wrigley Field atmosphere would be the sickest thing ever.

1. Cubs win World Series at Wrigley

http://gurtis.mlblogs.com/my_weblog/images/mct29.jpg

100 years…enough said.

Top Ten Reason the Cubs Won’t Make the Playoffs

As a Cubs fan this pains me to write, but with two teams only 3.5 games back heading into play Monday night, it seems reasonable the Cubs could end up on the outside looking in come October. These are the Top Ten Reason the Cubs Won’t Make the Playoffs

10. Not enough prospects to swing major deal

The reason the Cubs could not get C.C. is because they did not have the prospects. The Cubs seem to draft athletes that have the potential to be good MLB players but not power hitting monsters (like LaPorta) that teams are seeking. Harden’s name has been tossed around as a guy the Cubs are interested in and Hendry and Beane do have a history of trading together, but if last years Haren trade shows anything, Beane will demand only the best package of prospects, which the Cubs may not have. Looks like Randy Wolfe is their man. Goo…

9. Wear on rookies

The MLB season is longer than anything Fukudome or Soto have faced. The two rookies are very important to the Cubs lineup and if either of them goes down there will be tremendous affects on the Cubs’ run output. Fukudome’s calf strain has shown he is vulnerable to the wear and tear of the season. If the season grinds on one or both, it could cause major problems down the road.

8. St. Louis Cardinals

I don’t get the Cardinals. They are in the middle of the NL in runs and runs allowed, but keep on winning. There must be something to this batting the pitcher eighth thing. Unless their starting staff keeps on setting career bests, the Cardinals should fade, but as long as Pujos can knock in 27 in any given game, the Cards are still very real.

7. Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee’s offense started slow but has scored more runs as Braun has caught fire. What is frightening is that the offense could get even better if Fielder starts hitting anything like he did last year. With the addition of #1 on the list, The Brewers rotation has just become scary good.

6. Bullpen

If Marmol does not get right, the Cubs bullpen becomes very mediocre, fast. Wood has been lights-out until Saturday, but besides him it is day to day with the ‘pen.

5. The unexpected

Basically, something goes wrong. Z and Dempster go down with season ending shoulder surgery. The Cubs fall to second in the division and a team in the East catches fire to take over the Wild Card. Something, anything that is not supposed to happen does.

4. Schedule

MIL 10
STL 9
FLA 7
PHI 4
ARI 3

The Cubs still play the Brewers and Cardinals a combined 19 times, which means anything can happen. Plus they play the first or second best team in the East or West 14 more times, making their schedule much harder in the second half.

3. Starting Pitching

Z, Dempster and Lilly have become a solid base in the rotation. But after that it becomes rather shaky. Currently its Marquis and Marshall, but neither has been good enough to rely on during a playoff run. If the Cubs don’t trade for another SP, this could end up being the downfall of the North Side.

2. Injuries

Mark DeRosa has played five positions this year and not because of luxury. Fukudome, Edmonds, Theriot, Johnson, Soriano, Zambrano, Fox, Eyre, Ward, etc have all played with injuries or have been placed on the DL. As the Cubs have shown the last few weeks they are vulnerable without a full and healthy roster.

1. C.C. Sabathia

After winning the Cy Young last year, C.C. started 2008 poorly. However, after his fifth start he has become the dominating pitcher he was last year. With C.C. in the rotation, him and Sheets are now possibly the best 1-2 in all the land.

Top Ten Chicago Baseball Quotes (Good, Bad, Awesome)

These are my top ten baseball quotes said about Chicago baseball or said by Chicago baseball players and broadcaster.

10. Ken “Hawk” Harrelson 

Baseball is the only sport I know that when you are on offense the other team controls the ball. 

This would be the first and last sane statement of Hawk’s career.

9. Alvin Dark

Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball, as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living.

Couldn’t have said it better than myself.

8. Harry Caray

Aw, how could he (Jorge Orta) lose the ball in the sun, he's from Mexico.

Would you like a little racism with your hot dog?

7. Albert Belle on going to the White Sox

Going to a new team is like going to a new high school. Nobody knows you. It's a chance to rebuild your image. 

How’d that work out for you, Albert?

6. Harry Caray 

What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No Cubs.

Damn you Harry!

5. Albert Belle

RBIs win games; and they can make you a ton of money.

God, I love Albert Belle.

4. Jack Brickhouse

Any team can have a bad century.

Yeah, yeah, yeah…

3. Ernie Banks

I like my players to be married and in debt. That's the way you motivate them.

Do you think that would work for bloggers…well, without the wife thing, of course.

2. Leo Durocher

Some guys are admired for coming to play, as the saying goes. I prefer those who come to kill.

Half of me wishes Durocher raised me to be the biggest badass ever, but the other half of me really liked the new Death Cab album.

1. Jack Brickhouse

I imagine myself as the broadcaster for a Cubs-White Sox World Series, a Series that would last seven games, with the final game going extra innings before being suspended because of darkness at Wrigley Field.

We can only pray...

Honorable Mentions

“Andre Dawson has a bruised knee and is 
listed as day-to-day. Aren't we all?” - Vin Scully

"It's a great day for a ball game; let's play two!" - Ernie Banks

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise." - Shoeless Joe Jackson