Barring a Sox collapse in these last 11 games, it appears both
Give Kenny Williams all the credit for this one. Just imagine what the Sox record would be had either Juan Uribe or Danny Richar been starting at second base the majority of this year. Hands down, Ramirez should win the AL Rookie of the Year, despite not becoming a full time starter until the middle of May. The scary thing is Ramirez hasn’t even come close to reaching his full potential. Once he learns how to steal bases and a becomes a little more selective at the plate, look out.
Before this season, I said that Theriot wouldn’t start on perhaps 20 or so teams. Now, even though he sort of gets lost in the shuffle with all the big name National League shortstops, you could make a reasonable argument that, for stretches, Theriot has been the Cubs MVP. His knack for getting clutch hits and sure handed glove more than make up for his lack of power and weak throwing arm.
The power numbers (24 HR, 69 RBI) look great, but the .219 batting average not so much. Although Swisher has brought some much needed energy and passion into the Sox clubhouse, Williams probably didn’t think he was getting a guy who would hit about .30 points lower than his career average. If Dwayne Wise continues to provide a spark, Ozzie Guillen might be forced to sit Swisher for most of the stretch run.
Who would have ever guessed this back in April? Weren’t Jerry Owens and Felix Pie supposed to be in those spots? Two guys who have combined for 18 All-Star appearances somehow both made their way to
Up until the last couple weeks, it appeared the Cubs biggest threat in the playoffs would be the Brewers, mainly due to their 1-2 combination of C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets. As it stands now, the Brewers 3-12 record in September has them on the verge of missing out on the postseason entirely. What was shaping up to be a great race has suddenly turned into the Cubs owning a commanding nine game lead. That’s important, because it allows for the Cubs to set their playoff rotation and give some regulars a little rest during the last week.
Fukudome has quickly turned into baseball’s most expensive bench player. While all the hype coming from
No one was quite sure what to expect from these two unproven guys. They both have made Williams look like a genius for acquiring them for a washed up Freddy Garcia and a broken down Brandon McCarthy. Of late, Floyd’s been awesome, and has slowly turned into the Sox ace. Danks was money the first half of the season, and should have made the All-Star team. The immediate future looks very bright with these two at the top of the rotation.
Remember Williams’s quote at the winter meetings right after
At the time, Dempster’s prediction in spring training that the Cubs would win the World Series seemed very inappropriate. After all, who was Dempster to go about making World Series predictions when it was no sure thing he would beat out John Lieber and Jason Marquis for a spot in the rotation. Six months later, Dempster has walked the walk, turning into the team’s most dependable pitcher. The transition Dempster has made from a mediocre closer to one of the best starters in the National League has been nothing short of remarkable.
Okay, so he isn’t helping the team right now, but the Sox would be at least five games out of first if not for Quentin. He absolutely carried the team the first few months, while the rest of the offense was still in spring training mode. If not for his fluke injury, Quentin likely would have been the A.L. MVP, an incredible turnaround for a guy who hit only 14 home runs combined in two injury riddled seasons for
12 comments:
Danny good job, a few things.
10. I agree that Alexei has been GOOD this year. But do not give Kenny Williams any credit. If he started either of those players, Kenny would have been an idiot. Uribe has a career .296 OBP and Richar had a .289 OBP in 2007 with the Sox. Also keep in mind Kenny was trying to get Brian Roberts and Alexei was an attempt to stop the bleeding that Uribe was causing. The fact that Kenny stuck with Uribe for so long is more telling than anything.
Oh, PS plate descipline doesn't just happen, a hitter either has it or doesn't. It's kind of like Shaq and free throws. He can practice all he wants and improve a little, but in the end he just doesn't have the touch to become a good free throw shooter.
Another example is a guy like Soriano. All the talent in the world, right? You think he wants to swing at pitches in the other dugout? No. He just can't recognize pitches. He has no understanding of his hitting zone, and neither does Alexei.
8. I don't think Ozzie will drop Swish, but in a related topic Swish is still OBPing higher than Wise even though he is hitting 70 points less. Says more about Wise than Swish.
7. Eh. The Brewers Pythagorean W-L is 81-70. There record now is 83-68. So they are still playing over themselves a bit. On the other hand the Cubs is 93-56 (actual record 91-58), indicating the lead could be greater than it is.
To look at it in simplier terms, the Brewers run differential is only 51, making them a good-ish team, while the Cubs is 188. I don't really think there was a doubt. The Brewers were playing WAY over themselves for too long.
Danny, it was a fine post, but after your arguments for Buerhle (Get an easier name to spell, Mark) I felt i had to return the favor a bit. Tell ur sis i say hi.
Thanks Zach, you made some very good points.
Why don't you two get a room?
Zach, you are clearly a Cubs fan and never watch any of the games because just yesterday they were talking about how hitting coach Greg Walker was explaining to Hawk that Alexei has showed tremendous (...upside potential?) maturity at the plate as the season has progressed. He is a 26 year-old rookie who prior to this season had rarely seen big-league pitching. And to see the improvement he has shown from April is already spectacular. So in that he regard he is nothing like Soriano because the Fonz has seen ML pitching for eight-plus seasons now and still can't figure it out.
Danny, I would agree with your rookie of the year statement if it wern't for Longoria. The media loves that kid. Great job overall
Nice list, although I think it's a bit of a stretch to say Theriot could be the Cubs MVP. I might have put how bad the AL Central sucks as number one even, considering it was thought to be baseball's best or second best division at the start of this season.
I think you misjudge how engrained a player is to what pitches he swings at. Yes, you will see some improvement, but Alexei will always be in that 20-40% OBP over AVG range, which is pretty terrible, in all honesty. There is a reason guys like Swish are so valued. Their hitting zone recognition and understanding of the strike zone is off the charts, allowing him to OBP 100+ points over his batting average. One thing that a book like Moneyball showed was how you CAN judge a player’s ability to draw walks/get on-base or the reverse, by the numbers they put up in college or in the minors. A player VERY VERY VERY RARELY changes his spots, or in this case, pitch recognition and plate discipline.
I think you also need to take what a hitting coach says with a grain of salt. Usually, anything said by them is to keep or get a player confident (I know I do it too). Baseball is such a mental game that if a player thinks he is improving then he will continue to make the effort the coaches want and exude the confidence needed to be an affective hitter at that level. Also, I would like you to prove that to me. Show me charts of how he started laying off pitches out of the zone. Otherwise, it’s just a guy saying another guy is doing something to make the player and you feel like everything is going swell.
I think his batting average speaks for itself. The guy is hitting .300. No bullplop .obs stat with a man on second with a 2-2 count while with the hit and run on will defer that. Look at basic stats and you won't come off so dumb next time. Alexei has stuck out 59 times this year, more than half as many as your beloved Nick Swisher (129). While you may say he has good plate discipline, a -49 bb to k ratio may not actually be that great for a guy who depends on walks to boost his value.
Alexei has also struck out almost half as many times as Derrek Lee, a man you proclaimed was the best hitter in the National League. (Yes, Lee has more than 130 ab more, but I equated that you would only add 20 k's onto Alexei's total and that would still be significantly less).
To further this, Alfonso, the man you are comparing him with, has struck out 1/3 more than he has, in 20 less at bats. I don't think there is a better stat that shows plate discipline that strikeouts.
Do you have any fact that he will be a 20%-40% obs over average? He is a rookie Zack, of course he will improve. That's what the majority of good ballplayers do; they improve. You have no fact to say he will never get better. I don't know if you saw this but Alexei hit .335 in the Dominican last season. So the guy can clearly hit and he really does not strike out that much, so to say he has poor pitch selection is simply insane.
There is so much dumbass-ness your comment it hurts.
No bullplop .obs stat with a man on second with a 2-2 count, with the hit and run on will defer that.
I would like you to find me a coach who will hit and run with two strikes on a hitter and you will have found me a fucking retard. Yes, please lets make the guy with two strikes on him swing at a ball so he can strike out on a pitch he would have taken to make it a full count.
I think this next one is my favorite because it came after the comment you just said:
Look at basic stats and you won't come off so dumb next time.
Basic stats show just the surface of who a player is. Looking at just average or strikeouts is like looking at wins for a pitcher to determine how "good" he is. It is simpleton at its best. Fucking Livan Hernandez had 10 wins in the first half with a 5.48 ERA. Johan Santana has only 13 wins in 15 more starts. Johan is easily worse. Wait...
I think his batting average speaks for itself. The guy is hitting .300
If a guy has to hit .300 just to OBP .320, then that is very BAD. The point of baseball on offense is NOT TO GET OUT AND SCORE RUNS. THE MORE TIMES YOU DON'T GET OUT, IE RUNNERS ON BASE, THE MORE RUNS ARE LIKELY TO SCORE. It's simple and easy, not hard to figure out. Yes, in certain specific situation it is nice to have a guy who hits .300, but the majority of the time you want someone who will get on base (not get out) a ton.
Alexei has stuck out 59 times this year, more than half as many as your beloved Nick Swisher (129).
Swisher strikes out a lot because he gets into deep counts. Strike outs are about .15% worse than an average out, (accounting for errors) big whoop. Plus, he has A TON more PA's than Alexei.
Derrek Lee, a man you proclaimed was the best hitter in the National League
I said Lee was the best hitter in the league TWO YEARS AGO before the wrist injury. NOW he is pretty average.
To further this, Alfonso, the man you are comparing him with, has struck out 1/3 more than he has, in 20 less at bats.
It's more about swinging at pitches that are outside his hitting zone (balls he hits well) early in counts and making weak outs. He makes better contact than Soriano (as in puts the ball in play more). He also doesn't strike out a lot because he isn't in a lot of two strike counts, because he swing early and often. This will also account for why he doesn't walk a lot. Alexei has only walked 13 times, eww.
I don't think there is a better stat that shows plate discipline that [sic] strikeouts.
Actually, walks is probably the best indicator, that and pitches seen per PA.
I don't know if you saw this but Alexei hit .335 in the Dominican last season.
Yes and Fukudome hit over .350 twice in Japan. Differernt level of talent my friend.
He is a rookie Zack, of course he will improve.
Well, it's Zach, as you can see from every comment I have made. He is also almost 27. This and the next 2.5-3 years are his prime years. It is very rare for players to peak beyond the numbers they put up between 26-30 (without PEDs). So I think this is a pretty good indicator of what kind of player he is.
I rather not call each other idiots, but you started it. I think I am right about him. He is talented and can hit, he just seems to be unable to get into counts that may get him on base more (via better counts to hit in and walks).
Zach, the hit-and-run statement was an example of the irrelevant stats you look up in your free time.
All you need to do is look at basic stats. You gave me two pitching examples also. With pitching so much depends on the team, and you of all people know that you big club all-american ace.
The hitting aspect of baseball is far more dependent on the individual.
What you put in caps for no reason is correct, a .320 obp is not high, but the fact that you state he will not get any better with no information backing that up is wrong. He has not seen ML pitching much before this season.
Your Fukudome point is stupid, he sucks in America, Ramirez doesn't. And he didn't cost the White Sox millions either.
I love the fact that you feel as soon as the stroke of midnight strikes on A-Ram's 29th birthday, he will wither and become just another washed up infielder.
Those were just some highlights, I am done because I hope you have written half of what you had to get a shock-jock value, which you have.
First the hit and run thing is not a stat but a statement you made. And OBP is not an irrelevent stat but maybe the most important.
Fair enough on the pitching and as I said I think AR is talented but his approach to hitting (swinging wildly at anything near the zone) is why I don't think he will have a high OBP (kind of like his first AB tonight. Swing first pitch fastball then swinging at a slider off the plate to fly out).
I did say he would improve at that, but not at the rate i think you are expecting. I'm sure he will adjust a little, but at his age a player is kind of what he is. Sure there are freaks out there, that do better with age, but most did it with the help of drugs.
About the Fuk thing. I wanted you to keep it in perspective. Comparing stats from a weaker league is good, I guess, but it is a higher level now. In Cuba (yes the stats you were looking at were from Cuba) he OBPed at a 60 point higher clip, something you cant expect to be done in America because of better and more accurate pitching.
There is nothing shocking about what I said just general and basic knowledge on the progression of baseball players once they hit 30 (minus the PEDs thing).
Hey, if Alexei comes out next year and walks 60 times, or something, then I am wrong. But until then, he has shown he is a guy who swing early and often which would make me believe he will hit around .290-.300 for the next couple years and OBP about 20-40% higher. I am not being a dick I am leaving 20% room for improvement which is good, I think.
FYI
Here are his Cuban stats: http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?p=1007316
Here are his Cuban stats in Spanish: http://www.beisbolcubano.cu/static/guiawebbeisbol/guiaweb.htm
shut up, you crying bitches.
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